Immigration is the defining political issue of the 2020s โ in the United States, Europe, and much of the developed world. Like most issues that generate intense political heat, it is surrounded by contested statistics, motivated reasoning, and genuine complexity.
US border crossings have declined significantly since their 2023 peak, following the implementation of tighter asylum processing rules and increased enforcement. However, the stock of undocumented immigrants already in the country โ estimated at 11-12 million โ has not meaningfully changed despite the political intensity around the issue.
Multiple large-scale economic studies find that immigration โ both high-skill and low-skill โ increases overall economic output, expands the tax base, reduces pressure on public pension systems in ageing societies, and does not, on net, reduce wages for native-born workers in most contexts.
The economics of immigration are not particularly controversial among economists. The politics of immigration are not primarily about economics. Understanding that distinction is essential. โ Harvard Kennedy School
